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Moving Average

Definition:
The Moving average is calculated by taking the average of the N last closing values of the security.


Why use the Moving Average

- Indicator of tendency
- Establish Buy or Sell points


Analysis Tools for the Moving Average

This tool is used as a tendency indicator.
If the moving average is in an ascending or descending phase, it is simply following the upward or downwards movement of the security on the N last days
It enables us to evaluate the evolution of the security on the medium term and long term. It actually attenuates the apparent volatility of the security.


Detailed Analysis Methods and preferences

The Buy and Sell indicators that can be used are the following :
-Buy when the short term and medium term lines cross over the long term line.
-Sell when the short term and medium term lines cross under the long term line.




For example : Kuoni, the interpretation of the indicator gave us a buy signal in October 1998 and a sell signal in December 1998. This indicator, as all others, has to be confirmed by other indicators and studies. (The parameters used for this example are 9, 14 and 19 days).


Tips & Tricks
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The Buy and Sell indicators depend on the number of days chosen for the calculation of the three Moving Averages. The values used must be fine tuned in direct relation with other factors such as :

The values used have to be fine tuned using the following indicators :
- The volatility of the security
- Observation of the historical evolution of the security.
- The activity sector of the company (to determine cyclical values you can also use momentum indicator)
- Experience of the analyst....


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