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1. | Bollinger Bands | 4. | Detailed Analysis Methods and preferences |
2. | Why use Bollinger Bands | 5. | Comments made by Bollinger himself |
3. | Analysis Tools for Bollinger Bands | 6. | Tips & Tricks |
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Definition Bollinger Bands are a technical tool used to determine whether a stock price is high or low relative to its recent trading history. Bollinger Bands are fixed lines that are drawn above and below (equidistant) the moving average of the underlying security. The distance between the two bands and the moving average varies with the volatility of the underlying security. The sensitivity depends on the Standard Deviation settings. The Bollinger bands allow you to foresee sharp price changes, trends, reversal of trends and can also be used to make price projections. |
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- Measure volatility - Trend Measuring - Reversal of trends - Foresee price breakouts |
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As the bands decrease in width, thus a slowing volatility, a sharp price change is likely to occur. During high volatility the bands widen so as to forgive large price swings. When the price moves outside of the bands, the current trend is likely to continue. When Highs and Lows occur outside of the bands and these highs and lows are followed by highs and lows inside the bands, it tends indicate a reversal of the current trend. The longer the prices remain inside narrow bands the more imminent sharp price fluctuations are likely. The movements that originate at one band tend to go all the way to the other band. This is useful when making pricing projections. |
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The major assumption that is made when using Bollinger Bands is that prices tend to stay between the upper and lower bands. When a price breaks through the boundary (upper or Lower), it give a clear signal that the movement will or may continue further. The latter is true when the Bands are not too close together, but when the Bands come closer together it is very likely that there will be a price breakout. You can create the bands by setting the appropriate moving average (in number of days as a base for calculation) and standard deviation. The standard deviation measures the volatility, this implies that the band adjusts itself more precisely to price swings, meaning that when volatility rises the bands widen and vice versa. Conclusion, the more precision you need the lower the Standard deviation setting must be. Analysts recommend the following settings : Moving average; (the number of days are used for a calculation basis) - the 10-day moving average for short term trading - the 20-day moving average for medium term trading - the 50-day moving average for long term trading Standard Deviation; (Defines the distance between the moving average and the bands) - Two deviations for the ideal distance between the bands. By modifying the moving average and standard deviation you will be able to determine how wide the envelope is. You can select whatever day range and standard deviation that best suit your investing strategies To modify the Moving average and Standard Deviation preferences, click on preference settings on the bottom left corner of your chart window, modify the two fields and than click on OK. |
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a - When a rally out of a low breaks the upper band, that's a very powerful momentum indicator. b - In a really strong market, the price can walk up the upper band for weeks. This implies that if the prices keep touching the upper band week after week (or the bottom band), it does not absolutely confirm the momentum unless confirmed by another indicator. c - Bollinger advises investors not to get too hung up on whether a stock price touches or does actually go through the band. Bollinger bands do not give continuous guidance, they simply illuminate signals and generate information. They also allow one to make high-probability decisions regarding the future movement of stocks and stock indices. If we take for example the Vaudoise from February to May 1998, it shows us clear trend indications. At the beginning of the chart, the band is fairly narrow, announcing a price breakout, this is followed by a net increase of the security price . When the bands narrow down again, and the highs and lows are again between the bands, the price stabilises. |
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So as to have a clear view on the trend, you can use the HLOC and Japanese Candle Stick functions to project a trend. The time frame that is most often used is a 6 to 8 month period so as to really have a good appreciation of how the model functions on a chart singularly. The standard deviations should be set at Two for a fair view. You should always couple your analysis and not only stick to one indicator or instrument for your projections and measurements. |
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